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Frequently asked questions

How to read P1 ballot history without turning it into a forecast

Ballot history answers one question well: in a given phase, how often did applications exceed places, and at which citizenship and distance band was the ballot decided. It does not answer this year's question - vacancies shift, applicant numbers move with each cohort, and even your own distance category can change - so treat history as context for a shortlist, never as a forecast of an outcome.

Context

MOE publishes each school's vacancies, applications and balloting outcomes, and during the exercise updates live application numbers - data that rewards careful reading and punishes extrapolation.

What this means for your family

Three questions extract most of what the data holds. Did the school reach a ballot at all in the phase you would register in - many schools have not, year after year. At which band was it decided - a school balloting among citizens within 1km is telling you something very different from one that only balloted beyond 2km. And is the pattern stable across two or three years, or a one-year spike? Priority order explains why the band matters: citizens within 1km come first, then citizens by increasing distance, then PRs in the same distance order, and MOE's computerised ballot gives every applicant within the deciding group an equal draw. During the exercise itself, the live application count against vacancies is the sharpest signal you have - remembering that numbers are not final until the phase closes, and that a school that balloted last year can have room this year, and the reverse.

Steps you can take now

  1. Look up your target school's past 2-3 years in MOE's vacancies and balloting data, for the specific phase you will register in.
  2. Note the band at which any ballot was decided, and place your own verified distance category against it.
  3. During the registration window, watch live applications against vacancies rather than relying on memory of last year.
  4. Keep 2-3 alternative schools whose history at your band has been consistently calm - that, not a predicted percentage, is what the data is for.

How to know you’re done

For each shortlisted school you can say which phase, which band, and how stable the pattern is - and you are watching this year's live numbers instead of projecting last year's.

Sources and check dates

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